Theorists predict catostophic, worldwide riots related to food prices 2012-2013

[Stillwater]

http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1108/1108.2455v1.pdf

   This is a paper that has been getting alot of press lately. It was produced by the New-England Institute of Complexity, which is a group of computer scientists, physicists, and engineers who use the concepts of complexity theory (earlier known as chaos theory) to solve problems in science. The institute began studying the recent riots in the Middle-east, North Africa, and London, however, and applied some of their same methods to economics and social statistics; they were looking for correlations between all of these political movements, and the common conditions, and they were startled to find one common point all the riots had in common: the underclasses in those areas were at that time on average making below sufficient wages to feed themselves with the rise of food prices, while living a normal lifestyle for the given area.

       From this data, they reasoned that the major catalyst in all of these cases was approaching mass hunger; the riots were generally occurring in places where people were dissatisfied with the autocratic dictators presiding over them, but in which people had too much to lose to protest vigorously or violently. When enough people were nearing the point of approaching starvation, however, there were enough people desperate enough to disregard their own safety to make bold stands againts their rulers. And in every on of the riots identified, it happened right near a peak of a curve relating wages to buying power and food prices. The same was also found to be the case in London, where a large disenfranchised class struggles to meet the massive cost of living, and is becoming increasingly desperate as wages and food prices change disproportionately.



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     If you look at a chart of the data of this index (relating wages to food prices), you can see that most of the rioting occured near 2 distinct peaks in that value, around the recession doldrums of 2008, and recently in 2011, as food prices soared this summer. From the past data, and the rates of change, these resarchers are predicting that another massive peak will occur during the summer of 2012, and a mightier one still during most of 2013. And another frightening figure is that more than 70% of the world, including the US and Europe, has enough people in a low enough economic state that the pre-conditions for rioting will occur near universally. These researchers predict that 2013, or even earlier, may be a year of profound social violence, and a stacatto of constant revolutions all over the developing world on a scale which was confined to merely the Middle East in 2011, which will dangerously disrupt world-commerce and stability.

[manwesulimo2004]

This is interesting. Thanks for the post.

[kailaurius]

Yes, very interesting.  Also keep in mind however, we don't have to experience any of this if we don't want to.  Protesting, rioting, and civil unrest is not required to overcome the challenges that have been presented before us, but could very well be an appropriate and necessary method society chooses to use in order to work out the conflicts we have created for ourselves, thereby gaining the necessary experience that we may learn and grow from.

The global society could very easily bypass any potential catastrophic collapse followed by any riots and civil wars out of retaliation against the institutions we perceive to be responsible for our plight if we would but realize that ultimately we have the power, and that we are the only reason we are in the situation we are in now.  The entire world could be altered in an instant if we would realize that we are all one family, that we must help and support one another selflessly, and that we hold all the power.  However, it would appear that the majority of society is still struggling with this realization as can be seen by all the protests currently taking place all over the globe as many are trying to understand the situation we have allowed ourselves to be placed into and what needs to be done to resolve it, and because of years of conditioning by our institutions and mainstream society, and because we have allowed ourselves to become extremely disconnected from the planet, from nature, and each other, the only solution the majority can currently think of at the moment is to protest against not so much our institutions as it is our situation itself.

Charts, figures, and predictions of all types, including those based on mathematical calculations don't really mean much anymore, especially recently given the large number of failed predictions over the last few years.  This is most likely do to the wide variety of shifts in the consciousness and perceptions of the global society.  The Web Bot Project is a good example.  It worked really well in the beginning, but it appears that Clif High is realizing his program is not as effective as it used to be because the consciousness of society today has become incredibly fluid and volatile.  Looking at our world today it is difficult to predict the direction society will go next, or what trend they will follow next.  While it may appear society is headed toward massive unrest because of it's failure to recognize it's own power, all it would take is a small trigger or just one little spark that could very easily shift the mindset of society towards a new realization - a realization that there is no them, there is only us, and we are the only ones that have the power to shape our reality.

Again, a complete collapse of our current corrupt, self-destructive system may very well be a necessary ingredient during this learning process.  The question is how will society react to such an event, and will society gain the necessary learning experience from this event?

[Stillwater]

I agree that the word's people have the power to change their situation at any moment, and I also agree that one unpredicted event can change the entire course we are all heading. However, I think it is also important to think about why, if people have the ability to change things, they have not done so; I think there is a massive amount of friction and fear which must be overcome in order for people to become bold enough to take the necessary steps- people, afterall, generally have very much to lose by stepping out of line; in most places and times, it can easily mean death. When you look at all the times there was major social change, the change came directly after a period of particularly intense suffering, which caused people to become so desperate they lost fear of death. It was the same during the French revolution, the Soviet revolution, the Chinese Communist revolution, the US Revolution, and for the Germans preceding WW2. When people are down, that is when they are going to lash out, if history has told us anything.

You also have a point when you say that mathematical models can only get us so far, but it is still useful to an extent to try to figure out what is going on in the world, and what the causal relations might be, and correlations are. Extrapolating possible futures from the past is clearly not foolproof, but it may be better to get some idea of what may be coming, than not, sometimes.

[Stookie_]

However, I think it is also important to think about why, if people have the ability to change things, they have not done so; I think there is a massive amount of friction and fear which must be overcome in order for people to become bold enough to take the necessary steps- people, afterall, generally have very much to lose by stepping out of line

I would guess that most people living in a $150,000 house, eat steak every Tuesday, have always owned an SUV, and then suddenly see a decline in the economy and society, rather than take a risk and lose those luxuries, they're going to ride it out as long as possible. Basically, until it's too late to do anything. That's just an example... it really holds with anybody whose comfortable in their way of life. You cling to it. We're spoiled.

[Xanth]

I would guess that most people living in a $150,000 house, eat steak every Tuesday, have always owned an SUV, and then suddenly see a decline in the economy and society, rather than take a risk and lose those luxuries, they're going to ride it out as long as possible. Basically, until it's too late to do anything. That's just an example... it really holds with anybody whose comfortable in their way of life. You cling to it. We're spoiled.

That's pretty much how I see it as well.

Unfortunately for those people, they're going to learn the hard way.